Poker Overcard Odds - How Often Your Pocket Pair Becomes An Underpair On The Flop

Here are some interesting poker odds. Can you guess what they are?

AA 0%
KK 23%
QQ 43%
JJ 59%
TT 71%
99 81%
88 88%
77 93%
66 97%
55 99%
44 99.7%
33 99.9%

If you said that these are the odds you’ll see an over card on the flop when you’re holding a pocket pair, congratulations!

If you’re thinking that this is a pointless bit of trivia, think again. These numbers matter at the poker table because they help you to predict some of the challenges you’ll be facing when you consider how to play pocket pairs.

How many times have you peeked down at a pair of tens, jammed some money in the pot before the flop and found yourself floundering about for the rest of the hand?

Look at those numbers up there again. You’re going to be facing an over card between 2/3rds and 3/4th’s of the time whenever you see the flop while holding pocket tens.

Does that make you reconsider preflop raising 5 loose/weak limpers who you know will all thoughtlessly call your raise? Where will most likely be in the hand after the flop – ahead or behind? Then what?

Poker isn’t all about memorizing numbers, but there are some things that you should lock away in your head so that you understand what you’re getting into when you make a particular decision.

That’s because playing winning poker is less about what is happening now and more about what’s likely to happen next (i.e. planning).

Before you consider making a move at the table, first think through all your options.

Then consider what things are likely to occur next when selecting each particular option.

Do you have a plan for each of them?

What if 3 players call?

What if you get reraised?

What if the maniac on the left shoves all his chips in the pot?

How likely is each?

Obviously no one can predict the future, but the better you understand poker odds and percentages, the easier time you’ll have planning for likely outcomes.

Anticipation of future outcomes also prevents tilt because you know it will happen sometimes. This has helped me personally alot, understanding that I do sometimes get beat and things don't always go as they should :-)

Memorization is boring, but it pays to put in the work.

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